What is race-morning weather usually like at the Falmouth Road Race?

Race-day weather · Wyndo for runners

Falmouth Road Race weather

August 16, 2026 · Falmouth, MA · scheduled start 8:00 AM (America/New_York). What the start usually feels like, year by year — and a live start-time read once the race is inside the 7-day forecast window.

Live read for the 8:00 AM start · August 16, 2026

The start-time read looks workable

Great conditions for running

Forecast Horizon: This recommendation is ~87h out; forecast accuracy decreases over time.

Forecast checked at 5:18 PM (America/New_York) — evaluating conditions around the scheduled 8:00 AM start at the start line, roughly the first half hour. It is not a whole-course or finish-line evaluation, and forecasts shift: re-check as race morning approaches.

Race-morning weather history

Heat and humidity are the defining hazard — bad enough that the 2026 start moved an hour earlier; 2020 virtual-only (counted in edition numbering). History here samples the new 08:00 start hour for every year, including editions that ran at ~09:00 — it reflects the 2026+ gun time, not each past year's actual start. Wyndo tracks what this calendar slot has actually served up at the start hour — temperature, dew point, wind, and rain — including the years when weather canceled or disrupted the race, and reads the live forecast for the start once race week arrives.

Median start temp

70°F

p75 (a warm year): 72°F

Median dew point

65°F

at the start hour

Rain at the start

1 of 20 measured years

Warmest start

75°F

in 2017

Scroll sideways to see all columns.

Start-hour weather by year for the Falmouth Road Race's calendar slot
Year	Start temp	Dew point	Wind	Precip (start hr)	Day's high
2025	72°F	68°F	10 mph	dry	82°F
2024	69°F	65°F	2 mph	dry	73°F
2023	67°F	57°F	8 mph	dry	80°F
2022	69°F	69°F	5 mph	dry	80°F
2021	72°F	60°F	9 mph	dry	78°F
2020	70°F	65°F	11 mph	dry	70°F
2019	72°F	70°F	3 mph	dry	80°F
2018	68°F	65°F	13 mph	dry	72°F
2017	75°F	68°F	8 mph	dry	83°F
2016	72°F	64°F	8 mph	dry	79°F
2015	73°F	69°F	3 mph	dry	85°F
2014	70°F	65°F	6 mph	dry	77°F
2013	66°F	63°F	1 mph	dry	75°F
2012	67°F	63°F	6 mph	dry	73°F
2011	72°F	68°F	9 mph	dry	82°F
2010	67°F	60°F	5 mph	dry	75°F
2009	72°F	68°F	5 mph	dry	83°F
2008	68°F	60°F	8 mph	dry	80°F
2007	61°F	53°F	3 mph	dry	70°F
2006	71°F	69°F	13 mph	1.1 mm	79°F

Slot climatology: each row is the weather at this race's usual calendar slot and start hour (ERA5 reanalysis at the start line) — including years when the edition was canceled or moved. A computed slot date is not a claim the race ran that day.

The 8 a.m. start, by the numbers

Falmouth's 2026 start moves to 8 a.m. — an hour earlier than the race traditionally ran. To size what that hour gap has looked like, Wyndo compared the modeled weather during the 8 a.m. hour and the 9 a.m. hour on the same 20 third-Sunday-of-August mornings (2006–2025) — the race's traditional calendar slot, counted whether or not an edition ran in person that year (2020 was virtual): the 9 a.m. hour ran a median 0.95 °C (1.7 °F) higher on Wyndo's approximate WBGT across the 20 modeled mornings — mean 0.93 °C, with per-morning differences from 0.1 to 1.6 °C.

Approximate WBGT

+0.95 °C

median paired difference · range 0.1 to 1.6 °C

Air temperature

+0.8 °C

(1.4 °F) median · range -0.1 to 1.8 °C

Dew point

+0.35 °C

(0.6 °F) median · range -0.4 to 0.9 °C

Wyndo's approximate model placed the 9 a.m. hour in higher estimated flag territory in 5 of 20 modeled mornings. On 8 of the 20 mornings, at least one hour's estimate sat within 0.5 °C WBGT of a flag-tier boundary.

Approximate WBGT during the 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. hours of each modeled calendar-slot morning
Year	8 a.m. hour	9 a.m. hour	Difference	Estimated flag territory (8 → 9)
2006	21.3 °C	21.8 °C	+0.5 °C	yellow
2007	15.0 °C	15.8 °C	+0.8 °C	green
2008	18.9 °C	20.3 °C	+1.4 °C	yellow
2009	22.1 °C	23.3 °C	+1.2 °C	yellow → red
2010	18.5 °C	19.6 °C	+1.1 °C	yellow
2011	21.7 °C	22.7 °C	+1 °C	yellow
2012	19.3 °C	20.5 °C	+1.2 °C	yellow
2013	18.8 °C	20.4 °C	+1.6 °C	yellow
2014	20.4 °C	21.8 °C	+1.4 °C	yellow
2015	22.6 °C	23.8 °C	+1.2 °C	yellow → red
2016	21.1 °C	22.1 °C	+1 °C	yellow
2017	22.8 °C	23.7 °C	+0.9 °C	yellow → red
2018	19.5 °C	20.0 °C	+0.5 °C	yellow
2019	22.3 °C	23.1 °C	+0.8 °C	yellow → red
2020	20.0 °C	20.1 °C	+0.1 °C	yellow
2021	20.2 °C	20.9 °C	+0.7 °C	yellow
2022	21.0 °C	21.7 °C	+0.7 °C	yellow
2023	18.0 °C	19.0 °C	+1 °C	green → yellow
2024	20.0 °C	20.6 °C	+0.6 °C	yellow
2025	21.9 °C	22.7 °C	+0.8 °C	yellow

How this was modeled — and its limits

ERA5 reanalysis at the start-line point in Woods Hole — modeled values, not station or on-course measurements, including the modeled solar irradiance behind the WBGT estimate's solar term. Source: the Open-Meteo historical weather archive (models=era5), retrieved 2026-07-28.
Each row compares the modeled weather during the 8 a.m. hour versus the 9 a.m. hour on the same mornings — one point at the start line, not full-course exposure. Temperature and dew point are the modeled values at the top of each hour; solar is the modeled average over that hour, aligned to Open-Meteo's published hourly conventions.
WBGT here is Wyndo's approximate estimate (simplified formula with a heuristic solar term and no wind term); a measured on-course WBGT can differ.
Flag categories are estimates only, from approximate 18/23/28 °C WBGT cut-points. Race organizers use their own on-course measurements and policies, and race-day flag calls belong to the race director and medical team.
The race historically started around 9 a.m., so this is a weather comparison between two hours of the same modeled mornings — not a record of what past runners experienced. The move to 8 a.m. was the organizers' decision, announced in October 2025; Wyndo computed these numbers independently, after that announcement.

Your heat-adjusted goal for the 7-miler

The same cited model as the full calculator, pointed at this race: the live forecast for the scheduled start hour.

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Race facts

Start line: Water St, Woods Hole, at the Community Hall (68 Water St), near the Eel Pond drawbridge; finish at Falmouth Heights
Scheduled start: 8:00 AM (America/New_York) — 2026 REGIME CHANGE: moved from ~9:00 to an 8:00 anchor for heat safety (announced Oct 2025; official 2026 FAQ/race-day pages publish the full 8 AM schedule). Wheelchair 7:40, duos 7:41, elite women 7:50, elite men + seeded 8:00, sub-elite 8:02, pulse waves from 8:04. Do NOT carry 2025's ~9:00 forward.
Field size: ~11,000-runner field (lottery + resident + charity entry)
Registration: lottery (applications May 8-17, 2026) + resident + charity

Wyndo is not affiliated with or endorsed by the Falmouth Road Race (officially the "ASICS Falmouth Road Race") or its organizers. Race names are used descriptively to identify the event; schedules and start times belong to the race — always confirm details on the official site. Weather guidance here is informational, never medical advice, and event alert flags on race day belong to the race's own medical team.