Race-day weather · Wyndo for runners
YMCA Buffalo Niagara Turkey Trot weather
November 26, 2026 · Buffalo, NY · scheduled start 9:00 AM (America/New_York). What the start usually feels like, year by year — and a live start-time read once the race is inside the 7-day forecast window.
Countdown
91 days to race day
The live race-day forecast unlocks 85 days from now, when November 26, 2026 enters the 7-day forecast window — a start-time read for the scheduled 9:00 AM start. Until then, live hourly data is not available; the history below shows what race morning usually looks like.
Typical start temp
36°F
median of 20 years
A warm year
39°F
75th percentile start temp
Rain at the start
25%
5 of 20 measured years
Race-morning weather history
Cold Buffalo Thanksgiving mornings with real lake-effect snow potential off Lake Erie. No cancelled years in the verified window — 2020 ran as an invite-only LIVE 8K (117 finishers) plus virtual, so the streak stands. Pre-2026 editions started ~7.5 km north of the current start. Wyndo tracks what this calendar slot has actually served up at the start hour — temperature, dew point, wind, and rain — including the years when weather canceled or disrupted the race, and reads the live forecast for the start once race week arrives.
Median start temp
36°F
p75 (a warm year): 39°F
Median dew point
32°F
at the start hour
Rain at the start
25%
5 of 20 measured years
Warmest start
51°F
in 2020
Scroll sideways to see all columns.
| Year | Start temp | Dew point | Wind | Precip (start hr) | Day's high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36°F | 27°F | 22 mph | dry | 36°F |
| 2024 | 36°F | 35°F | 10 mph | 0.6 mm | 41°F |
| 2023 | 44°F | 36°F | 14 mph | dry | 45°F |
| 2022 | 34°F | 30°F | 7 mph | dry | 49°F |
| 2021 | 44°F | 40°F | 11 mph | dry | 47°F |
| 2020 | 51°F | 48°F | 14 mph | dry | 52°F |
| 2019 | 37°F | 33°F | 17 mph | 0.2 mm | 41°F |
| 2018 | 17°F | 8°F | 10 mph | dry | 21°F |
| 2017 | 32°F | 25°F | 5 mph | dry | 41°F |
| 2016 | 38°F | 34°F | 6 mph | 0.7 mm | 44°F |
| 2015 | 49°F | 33°F | 16 mph | dry | 58°F |
| 2014 | 31°F | 24°F | 2 mph | dry | 34°F |
| 2013 | 23°F | 14°F | 7 mph | dry | 28°F |
| 2012 | 39°F | 32°F | 9 mph | dry | 56°F |
| 2011 | 38°F | 35°F | 12 mph | dry | 45°F |
| 2010 | 35°F | 24°F | 11 mph | 0.5 mm | 46°F |
| 2009 | 47°F | 41°F | 9 mph | dry | 50°F |
| 2008 | 35°F | 29°F | 10 mph | dry | 37°F |
| 2007 | 36°F | 34°F | 16 mph | 2.1 mm | 38°F |
| 2006 | 31°F | 28°F | 5 mph | dry | 45°F |
Slot climatology: each row is the weather at this race's usual calendar slot and start hour (ERA5 reanalysis at the start line) — including years when the edition was canceled or moved. A computed slot date is not a claim the race ran that day.
Your heat-adjusted goal for the 8k
The same cited model as the full calculator, pointed at this race: the median start-hour conditions this calendar slot has served up — climatology, not a forecast.
Your race-day brief
Skip the taper-week refresh spiral. Email briefs for the YMCA Buffalo Niagara Turkey Trot: a start-hour outlook when race day enters the 7-day forecast window, updates only when it changes meaningfully, and a final look the day before.
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Race facts
- Start line
- Buffalo Niagara Convention Center, Franklin St & W Eagle St — NEW downtown loop for 2026 (2015-2025 editions started at 2564 Delaware Ave, ~7.5 km north). Venue-point geocode, approximate.
- Scheduled start
- 9:00 AM (America/New_York) — 2026 published: 9:00 AM ET mass start with self-seeded pace zones (not timed waves); no wheelchair/elite early gun documented. Race-morning packet pickup 7:00-8:30 is not a start time.
- Field size
- 2025: exactly 10,500 timed 8K result rows (RunSignup results API, counted by paging) — the suspiciously round number is unexplained (possible truncation unverified). Peak-era registrations reportedly capped at 14,000.
- Registration
- open (opens early August "until race capacity is met")
Wyndo is not affiliated with or endorsed by the YMCA Buffalo Niagara Turkey Trot (officially the "YMCA Buffalo Niagara Turkey Trot") or its organizers. Race names are used descriptively to identify the event; schedules and start times belong to the race — always confirm details on the official site. Weather guidance here is informational, never medical advice, and event alert flags on race day belong to the race's own medical team.